Erasmus rolls with 5-3 bench as All Blacks tipped to strike at Ellis Park

Six weeks of mind games and lawyerly press conferences come to a head at Ellis Park on Saturday, with both Rassie Erasmus and Dave Rennie naming teams nobody quite expected.

Moreover, as James While writes for Planet Rugby, the coach who invented the Bomb Squad has surprised everyone by leaving the explosives in the shed.

Erasmus has opted for a traditional 5-3 split on the bench rather than the forward-heavy 6-2 or 7-1 combinations that have defined Springbok selection for the better part of a decade. While likened it to Ferrari turning up at Monza and unloading bicycles with rod brakes – a striking image for a coach who built his reputation on unleashing a fresh, near-full front row with 20 minutes still to play. 

Whether that reflects confidence in his starters, one eye on bodies needed for the Cape Town and Soweto Tests to come, or a read that this All Blacks side has to be beaten with ball in hand rather than worn down, Erasmus isn't saying.

The theory holds at fly-half too: Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu gets the number 10 jersey for an hour of invention, with Manie Libbok covering the closing stages and the ice-cool Handre Pollard left out of the squad altogether. 

Rennie has mirrored the move from the other side, handing Ruben Love the All Blacks' 10 shirt with no specialist back-up in reserve and 145-cap veteran Beauden Barrett left to watch from the stands.

Much of the week's build-up has been shaped by New Zealand's underwhelming form on tour – heavy wins over understrength URC franchise sides that, in While's assessment, proved about as predictive as a pre-season kickabout in a monsoon. The more meaningful formlines, he noted, are South Africa's 45-21 win over England and New Zealand's 40-21 defeat of Ireland, both post-June form results from the Nations Championship.

Erasmus, never one to let a press conference pass quietly, brought former international referee Jaco Peyper – now an adviser to the Springbok camp – to face questions on refereeing standards, deflecting attention from his own team's preparation in the process. He also asked the Ellis Park crowd to stay silent through the haka, pointing to how well it had been received in Cape Town. On the tactical battle to come, he was measured: neither side, he said, could tell the other how to use the ball.

Rennie, for his part, has been candid about the scale of the task facing his players, warning them the intensity would be several times what they faced from the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld, while defence coach Tana Umaga has stressed the importance of denying South Africa the ball in the areas that suit them.

While's data points also flagged Cam Roigard as pivotal to New Zealand's hopes – the All Blacks' ruck speed drops to 2.90 seconds with him on the field, the quickest mark of the Nations Championship – against a Springbok breakdown set up not for tempo but for getting ball-carriers over the gain line. The scrum, meanwhile, shapes up as a genuine contest, with Ox Nché's fitness restored and Wilco Louw starting rather than arriving off the bench.

Having initially fancied South Africa by nine points, Planet Rugby's prediction shifted on the back of the Springboks' bench selection and New Zealand's midfield options, ultimately tipping New Zealand to win by eight – while acknowledging the Springboks' extraordinary recent record, having won 12 Tests in a row and 31 of their last 34.

The teams

Springboks: 15 Damian Willemse, 14 Cheslin Kolbe, 13 Jesse Kriel, 12 Damian de Allende, 11 Kurt-Lee Arendse, 10 Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu, 9 Grant Williams, 8 Jasper Wiese, 7 Pieter-Steph du Toit (c), 6 Paul de Villiers, 5 Ruan Nortje, 4 Eben Etzebeth, 3 Wilco Louw, 2 Malcolm Marx, 1 Ox Nché Replacements: 16 Jan-Hendrik Wessels, 17 Gerhard Steenekamp, 18 Zachary Porthen, 19 Cobus Wiese, 20 Andre Esterhuizen, 21 Marco van Staden, 22 Cobus Reinach, 23 Manie Libbok

All Blacks: 15 Damian McKenzie, 14 Will Jordan, 13 Quinn Tupaea, 12 Jordie Barrett, 11 Josh Moorby, 10 Ruben Love, 9 Cam Roigard, 8 Ardie Savea (c), 7 Luke Jacobson, 6 Tupou Vaa'i, 5 Fabian Holland, 4 Josh Lord, 3 Tyrel Lomax, 2 Codie Taylor, 1 Ethan de Groot Replacements: 16 Asafo Aumua, 17 George Bower, 18 Fletcher Newell, 19 Anton Segner, 20 Peter Lakai, 21 Kyle Preston, 22 Anton Lienert-Brown, 23 Leroy Carter

Date: Saturday, 22 August 2026 Venue: Ellis Park, Johannesburg Kick-off: 17:10 (SAST) Referee: Matthew Carley (RFU) Assistant Referees: Karl Dickson (RFU), Nika Amashukeli (GRU) TMO: Mike Adamson (SRU)