Humanity has three generations to avert sixth mass extinction

Humankind has at most three generations to mitigate the accelerating effects of Earth's sixth mass extinction, according to a stark new assessment from the Palaeontological Scientific Trust (Past).

The organisation has drawn a direct link between current climate disruptions – including severe El Niño cycles and extreme weather events – and patterns recorded deep in the fossil record, arguing that prehistoric die-offs offer a precise lens through which to understand today's accelerating environmental crisis.

Past said every child born today is entering a world undergoing a human-driven mass extinction event that mirrors those of prehistoric times.

Deep-time evidence – the multi-million-year record of Earth's history preserved in fossils and rock strata – shows that rapid planetary heating has historically triggered biodiversity collapse and the disappearance of entire branches of life. While natural cycles such as El Niño periodically reshape weather patterns on their own, the organisation argues that human-driven warming is now compounding these effects, placing unprecedented pressure on the environment.

‘Deep time provides the scale needed to understand this crisis’

Dr Emil Krupandan, director at Past, said the geological record offers a uniquely long-term perspective on the present moment.

“Deep time provides the precise, long-term scale needed to understand this crisis,” he said.

Krupandan explained that in previous mass extinctions, rapid shifts in temperature, ocean chemistry and oxygen availability combined to trigger cascading ecological failures across oceans, coastlines and continental interiors.

He pointed to research showing that 73 vertebrate genera have gone extinct since 1500 – a rate of loss that would ordinarily have taken around 18,000 years under normal background extinction levels. He said the same destabilising processes are once again under way today.

Past was careful to stress that current disruptions should not be viewed as isolated weather anomalies, but rather as interconnected signals of an accelerating extinction continuum – one in which humanity itself is among the vulnerable species.

Southern Africa already feeling the strain

The organisation said these warnings are already becoming tangible realities across Southern Africa, through severe weather events, warming oceans and rising sea levels. In Cape Town, long-term models project that sea-level rise combined with more severe storms will lead to chronic flooding in low-lying coastal and riverine areas by 2150, placing infrastructure, homes and residents of informal settlements at severe risk. Despite the scale of the warning, Past was clear that the ultimate outcome remains undetermined.

“Deep time shows us that once ecosystems begin to unravel, the consequences can persist for millions of years,” Krupandan said.

He added, however, that today's circumstances differ from the past in one crucial respect: “The difference today is that we understand what is happening while it is happening. Every fraction of a degree of avoided warming, every ecosystem protected, and every species retained can dramatically reduce the severity of future loss.”

By reading present-day environmental signals against the backdrop of ancient catastrophes, Past said deep-time science transforms abstract climate warnings into tangible stakes – underscoring that decisions made over the next three human generations will shape the trajectory of life on Earth.