Netanyahu short of majority as count shifts the picture

Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing bloc remained short of a parliamentary majority on Wednesday morning, but emerging vote counts complicated initial suggestions that Israel’s electorate had decisively removed him from power.

Early exit polls following Tuesday’s election projected that Likud would fall to about 24 or 25 seats, compared with the 32 it won in 2022. They also indicated that neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor the main opposition parties had secured a clear route to government.

However, The Jerusalem Post, citing Central Elections Committee figures after more than four million votes had been counted, reported a subsequent projection of 27 seats for Likud and 54 for Netanyahu’s bloc.

That would leave the prime minister’s allies seven seats short of a majority in the 120-member Knesset.

The same report put the main opposition bloc on 47 seats and Arab-led parties on a combined 19. Gadi Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party, Netanyahu’s principal challenger, was projected to win 21 seats.

Eisenkot has rejected serving under Netanyahu. Resistance among opposition parties to relying on Arab-party support also complicates an alternative administration.

The emerging picture therefore points to difficult coalition negotiations rather than a confirmed transfer of power. A political stalemate and another election remain possible.

The figures are provisional and may change as counting continues. A loss of Netanyahu’s existing majority would weaken his position, but would not automatically end his premiership.

Sources: The Times of Israel, election coverage, 27–28 October; The Jerusalem Post, updated 28 October at 11.08am Israeli time.