Iran emerges hardened, not toppled, six months after US-Israeli strikes

Six months after the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran aimed at reshaping the Middle East, the region looks markedly different – though not in the way Washington and Israel had hoped.

Joseph Krauss writes for Associated Press that Iran's clerical leadership survived the assassination of senior figures and weeks of bombing that began on 28 February, and has since found significant leverage through its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil and gas shipments.

Rather than weakening Tehran, the war appears to have hardened its position.

Former US assistant secretary of state Barbara Leaf said Iran has emerged with growing confidence that it can not only survive such pressure but reshape the regional balance in its favour, leaving behind a regime she described as more radical and difficult to deal with than before the conflict.

Iran had appeared unusually vulnerable heading into the war, with its currency in collapse and major anti-government protests violently suppressed in January. That vulnerability shifted once the strikes began, however, as Iran's leadership was swiftly replaced and the public did not rise up against the government as the US and Israel had hoped.

Tehran went on to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz and strike Gulf states hosting American troops, before a ceasefire and subsequent deal with the US both ultimately collapsed.

Analysts warn Iran risks mistaking survival for outright victory as it pushes to entrench lasting control over the strait.

The war has also strained Washington's long-standing security relationship with Gulf Arab states, after Iran struck at nations that had sought to stay neutral, including their energy infrastructure and desalination plants.

Gulf expert Kristian Coates Ulrichsen of Rice University said the war's apparent lack of a clear objective or fallback plan is likely to weigh on regional confidence in the US for some time.

Saudi Arabia's new defence pact with Pakistan and Turkey last month points to allies exploring alternatives, though Ulrichsen noted no substitute currently exists for the full scope of US security cooperation.

Israel, meanwhile, has notched tactical wins without decisive victory.

Hezbollah's missile strikes triggered a renewed Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon, adding to territory already seized since October 2023 – gains that have come at a steep diplomatic cost.

Israel faces widespread accusations of genocide in Gaza, and Netanyahu has been indicted by the International Criminal Court for crimes against humanity, allegations Israel rejects.

Support for Israel within the US has also eroded, with critics from both major parties increasingly framing the country as having drawn Washington into another Middle Eastern war. The prospect of Israeli-Saudi normalisation, meanwhile, appears to have receded further still.