Fuel prices set to rise by about R3 a litre next week, CEF data shows

South African motorists could face record fuel prices from Wednesday, 7 October, with the latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) data pointing to increases of about R3 a litre for both petrol and diesel.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources had not yet announced the official adjustment at the time of publication, but Moneyweb reported that the CEF’s latest monthly data indicated a potential R3.21 increase in the price of 95 unleaded petrol.

That would take the inland price from R26.92 to about R30.13 a litre, pushing 95 petrol above the R30 mark for the first time. The projected increase for 93 petrol was R3.01, which would leave it just below R30.

Diesel prices are also projected to reach unprecedented levels. Moneyweb reported that 0.005% diesel could increase by R3.10 a litre, from R30.05 to R33.15, while 0.05% diesel could rise by R2.69 to R31.80 inland.

The projections reflect deepening under-recoveries during September - the gap between the regulated pump price and the calculated cost of importing and supplying fuel.

An earlier IOL report on 30 September, also citing CEF data, put the expected increase at R3.12 for 95 petrol and R2.83 for 93 petrol. It said the outlook had deteriorated sharply from two weeks earlier, when petrol was expected to rise by about R2.40 a litre.

The Slate Levy, which compensates oil companies for fluctuations in fuel prices during the preceding month, could add further pressure to the final adjustment, IOL reported.

The latest increase would add to a sharp rise in fuel costs during 2026. News24 reported that petrol had increased by as much as R5.51 a litre and diesel by up to R9.32 a litre through the September adjustment.

According to IOL, September brought a R1.34-a-litre increase in petrol, while diesel rose by between R2.94 and R3.15.

The previous record price for 95 petrol was R28.06 a litre in Gauteng, reached in June, according to News24.

Moneyweb attributed the latest pressure to the conflict in the Middle East, which has pushed international oil prices higher. Diesel prices surged to record levels after the conflict intensified earlier this year, with petrol now following a similar trajectory.

The Herald reported in September that Brent crude had moved above $100 a barrel, although a relatively strong rand provided some relief to South African consumers.

South Africa’s fuel prices are regulated and adjusted monthly, normally on the first Wednesday of the month. The CEF’s figures are projections based principally on international petroleum prices and the rand exchange rate, meaning the final adjustment may differ from the current estimates.

Sources: Moneyweb, IOL, News24 and The Herald.